WATCH #1MATCHDAY 1
Ivory Coast
FIFA #38
Japan
FIFA #18
Ivory Coast progression from CAN winners squad makes them dangerous. Japan inexperience post-Moriyasu transition.
LIVE SHOCK-WATCH · RANKED BY FIFA GAP
Live · pre-tournamentAuto-updatesHistorical compare
The biggest upsets of WC 2026
Every shock result at the 2026 World Cup, ranked by FIFA-ranking gap. Pre-tournament: the model's top 4 upset candidates. Mid-tournament: a live ledger of actual upsets in chronological order with full match context.
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At the 2026 World Cup, the Onside model's pre-tournament upset candidates include Ivory Coast vs Japan (MD1, Group E), Morocco vs Brazil (Group C), and Australia vs Senegal (Group G). The list re-ranks after every matchday with actual results plus the gap-by-FIFA-rank comparison.
PRE-TOURNAMENT MODEL CANDIDATES · TOP 4
Where the model says shocks are most likely
Ranked by the underdog's win probability vs the consensus crowd-pooled expectation. Once these matches play, they move to the actual-upsets ledger below (or get archived if the favourite wins).
WATCH #2MATCHDAY 2
Morocco
FIFA #12
Brazil
FIFA #6
Morocco beat Brazil in 2023. Group C order means a draw is technically an upset given crowd-pooled odds.
WATCH #3MATCHDAY 1
Qatar
FIFA #55
Switzerland
FIFA #19
Qatar at home (they are co-hosting? No — but home-pool venue draws). Group B is the most upset-prone group.
WATCH #4MATCHDAY 1
Australia
FIFA #35
Senegal
FIFA #17
Australia historically over-performs at WC group stage. Senegal banged-up post-AFCON 2025.
Iconic WC upsets to compare against
1990Cameroon 1-0 Argentina
Opening match. Defending champions Argentina (Maradona) lost to Cameroon despite 2 red cards.
2022Saudi Arabia 2-1 Argentina
Argentina's only loss of the tournament. They went on to win the cup.
2002Senegal 1-0 France
Opening match. Defending champions France lost to debutants Senegal.
2010Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Switzerland beat eventual champions Spain in Group H opener.
2014Costa Rica out-progressed
CR topped Group D (Italy, England, Uruguay) — pre-tournament 1000-1 odds to advance.
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