Morocco (FIFA #8) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Brazil (FIFA #6). The 2-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (CONMEBOL vs CAF) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Morocco need to absorb first-half pressure and sustain attacking transitions; Brazil can drop off after taking an early lead.
Brazil50%
Draw 23%27%Morocco
Canada (FIFA #30) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Switzerland (FIFA #19). The 11-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (UEFA vs CONCACAF) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Canada need to absorb first-half pressure and sustain attacking transitions; Switzerland can drop off after taking an early lead.
Switzerland50%
Draw 23%27%Canada
Bosnia & Herzegovina (FIFA #65) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Qatar (FIFA #55). The 10-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (AFC vs UEFA) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Bosnia & Herzegovina need to translate their home support into early-press pressure; Qatar are road-vulnerable when chasing a game.
Bosnia & Herzegovina27%
Draw 23%50%Qatar
Paraguay (FIFA #40) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Australia (FIFA #27). The 13-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (AFC vs CONMEBOL) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Paraguay need to translate their home support into early-press pressure; Australia are road-vulnerable when chasing a game.
Paraguay26%
Draw 24%50%Australia
Cape Verde (FIFA #69) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Saudi Arabia (FIFA #61). The 8-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (AFC vs CAF) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Cape Verde need to translate their home support into early-press pressure; Saudi Arabia are road-vulnerable when chasing a game.
Cape Verde26%
Draw 24%50%Saudi Arabia
Egypt (FIFA #28) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Iran (FIFA #21). The 7-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (AFC vs CAF) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Egypt need to translate their home support into early-press pressure; Iran are road-vulnerable when chasing a game.
Colombia (FIFA #13) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Portugal (FIFA #5). The 8-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (UEFA vs CONMEBOL) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Colombia need to translate their home support into early-press pressure; Portugal are road-vulnerable when chasing a game.
Colombia26%
Draw 24%50%Portugal
Uzbekistan (FIFA #50) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against DR Congo (FIFA #46). The 4-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (CAF vs AFC) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Uzbekistan need to absorb first-half pressure and sustain attacking transitions; DR Congo can drop off after taking an early lead.
DR Congo50%
Draw 23%27%Uzbekistan
Algeria (FIFA #29) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 50% against Austria (FIFA #24). The 5-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (UEFA vs CAF) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Algeria need to translate their home support into early-press pressure; Austria are road-vulnerable when chasing a game.
Algeria26%
Draw 24%50%Austria
Czechia (FIFA #41) have a combined win-or-draw probability of 49% against South Korea (FIFA #25). The 16-place ranking gap is narrower than the typical favourite vs underdog spread; confederation difference (AFC vs UEFA) is a small factor. The model gives moderate confidence to the favourite — a single tactical surprise could flip this.
What would need to happen: Czechia need to absorb first-half pressure and sustain attacking transitions; South Korea can drop off after taking an early lead.
South Korea51%
Draw 24%25%Czechia