MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Ecuador sits 11 places above Ivory Coast in the FIFA ranking (#23 vs #34) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Ecuador to 53% and pushes Ivory Coast down to 23%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 47% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Ivory Coast
#34
Ecuador
#23
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Ivory Coast
4
Ecuador
1
HOST EDGE
Ivory Coast
—
Ecuador
—
CONFEDERATION
Ivory Coast
CAF
Ecuador
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
Ivory Coast4 PL
- Ibrahim SangaréNott'm Forest
- Simon AdingraSunderland
- Amad DialloMan Utd
- Evann GuessandAston Villa
Ecuador1 PL
- Moisés CaicedoChelsea
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