MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Mexico sits 10 places above South Korea in the FIFA ranking (#15 vs #25) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Mexico to 60% and pushes South Korea down to 18%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 40% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Mexico
#15
South Korea
#25
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Mexico
2
South Korea
1
HOST EDGE
Mexico
YES
South Korea
—
CONFEDERATION
Mexico
CONCACAF
South Korea
AFC
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
Mexico2 PL
- Edson ÁlvarezWest Ham
- Raúl JiménezFulham
South Korea1 PL
- Hwang Hee-chanWolves
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