Who will win France vs Senegal?
France vs SenegalWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives France 69%, draw 17%, and Senegal 14%. France is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Tuesday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
France vs Senegal World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives France 69%, draw 17%, and Senegal 14% — france favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
France vs Senegal prediction score
Expected scoreline: 3–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (France 3, Senegal 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
France vs Senegal head to head
Group I fixture at East Rutherford, kickoff Tue 16 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (FRA #1 vs SEN #14), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
France vs Senegal line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model picked France — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.
Ranking gap is the story
France sit 13 places above Senegal in the FIFA ranking (#1 vs #14) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. France comes out at 69%, Senegal at 14%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Lucas DigneAston Villa
- Malo GustoChelsea
- Ibrahima KonatéLiverpool
- Maxence LacroixCrystal Palace
- William SalibaArsenal
- Rayan CherkiMan City
- Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace
- Mamadou SarrChelsea
- El-Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham
- Idrissa GueyeEverton
- Habib DiarraSunderland
- Pape Matar SarrSpurs
- Iliman NdiayeEverton
- Nicolas JacksonChelsea
- Ismaïla SarrCrystal Palace
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Onside’s engine called 67 of 80 decisive World Cup matches — 84%, and 24 of 28 in the knockouts. It is now pointed at Fantasy Premier League, where it scores 0.86 mean absolute error across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions.
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