Who will win Japan vs Sweden?
Japan vs SwedenWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Japan 61%, draw 19%, and Sweden 20%. Japan is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Thursday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Japan vs Sweden World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Japan 61%, draw 19%, and Sweden 20% — japan favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Japan vs Sweden prediction score
Expected scoreline: 3–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Japan 3, Sweden 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Japan vs Sweden head to head
Group F fixture at Arlington, kickoff Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (JPN #18 vs SWE #38), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Japan vs Sweden line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured Japan — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.
Ranking gap is the story
Japan sit 20 places above Sweden in the FIFA ranking (#18 vs #38) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Japan comes out at 61%, Sweden at 20%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Wataru EndoLiverpool
- Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
- Ao TanakaLeeds
- Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
- Alexander IsakLiverpool
- Viktor GyökeresArsenal
- Anthony ElangaNewcastle
- Lucas BergvallSpurs
- Yasin AyariBrighton
- Victor LindelöfAston Villa
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Same model. Bigger season.
Onside’s engine called 67 of 80 decisive World Cup matches — 84%, and 24 of 28 in the knockouts. It is now pointed at Fantasy Premier League, where it scores 0.86 mean absolute error across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions.
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