MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Türkiye sits 18 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#22 vs #40) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Türkiye to 57% and pushes Paraguay down to 20%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 43% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Türkiye
#22
Paraguay
#40
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Türkiye
0
Paraguay
0
HOST EDGE
Türkiye
—
Paraguay
—
CONFEDERATION
Türkiye
UEFA
Paraguay
CONMEBOL
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