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Who will win Austria vs Jordan?

Onside's model gives Austria a 65% win probability (18% draw, Jordan 17%). The model's projected scoreline is Austria 31 Jordan. We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
Live model · updated moments ago · re-runs at kickoff67/82 calls right (82%) — see the record →
Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-19
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP J · MD1

Austria vs JordanWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 04:00 UTC · Santa Clara

Onside's AI model gives Austria 65%, draw 18%, and Jordan 17%. Austria is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group J fixture on Wednesday.

AUSTRIA WIN
65%
DRAW
18%
JORDAN WIN
17%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.721.40
★ MODE
21
8.4%
31
7.7%
11
6.9%
20
6.0%
22
5.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
78%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
71%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Austria vs Jordan World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Austria 65%, draw 18%, and Jordan 17% — austria favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Austria vs Jordan prediction score

Expected scoreline: 31 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Austria 3, Jordan 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Austria vs Jordan head to head

Group J fixture at Santa Clara, kickoff Wed 17 Jun, 04:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (AUT #24 vs JOR #63), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Austria vs Jordan line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
AUT / D / JOR
FINAL SCORE
31

Model picked Austria — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV AUT · STRONG CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Austria sit 39 places above Jordan in the FIFA ranking (#24 vs #63) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Austria comes out at 65%, Jordan at 17%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Austria
#24
Jordan
#63
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Austria
0
Jordan
0
HOME SOIL
Austria
Jordan
REGION
Austria
UEFA
Jordan
AFC
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