MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Canada sits 35 places above Bosnia & Herzegovina in the FIFA ranking (#30 vs #65) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Canada to 79% and pushes Bosnia & Herzegovina down to 8%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Canada as a strong favourite.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Canada
#30
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#65
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Canada
0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0
HOST EDGE
Canada
YES
Bosnia & Herzegovina
—
CONFEDERATION
Canada
CONCACAF
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA
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