Who will win Colombia vs DR Congo?
Colombia vs DR CongoWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Colombia 49%, draw 31%, and DR Congo 20%. Colombia is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Wednesday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Colombia vs DR Congo World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Colombia 49%, draw 31%, and DR Congo 20% — colombia favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Colombia vs DR Congo prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Colombia 1, DR Congo 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Colombia vs DR Congo head to head
Group K fixture at Zapopan, kickoff Wed 24 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (COL #13 vs COD #46), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Colombia vs DR Congo line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model picked Colombia — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.
Ranking gap is the story
Colombia sit 33 places above DR Congo in the FIFA ranking (#13 vs #46) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Colombia comes out at 49%, DR Congo at 20%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a narrow call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Daniel MuñozCrystal Palace
- Jefferson LermaCrystal Palace
- Yoane WissaNewcastle
- Aaron Wan-BissakaWest Ham
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Onside’s engine called 67 of 80 decisive World Cup matches — 84%, and 24 of 28 in the knockouts. It is now pointed at Fantasy Premier League, where it scores 0.86 mean absolute error across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions.
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