MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Czechia sits 19 places above South Africa in the FIFA ranking (#41 vs #60) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Czechia to 62% and pushes South Africa down to 17%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 38% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Czechia
#41
South Africa
#60
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Czechia
0
South Africa
0
HOST EDGE
Czechia
—
South Africa
—
CONFEDERATION
Czechia
UEFA
South Africa
CAF
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