MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Ecuador sits 59 places above Curaçao in the FIFA ranking (#23 vs #82) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Ecuador to 91% and pushes Curaçao down to 3%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Ecuador as a strong favourite.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Ecuador
#23
Curaçao
#82
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Ecuador
1
Curaçao
0
HOST EDGE
Ecuador
—
Curaçao
—
CONFEDERATION
Ecuador
CONMEBOL
Curaçao
CONCACAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
Ecuador1 PL
- Moisés CaicedoChelsea
Curaçao0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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