Who will win Ecuador vs Curaçao?
Ecuador vs CuraçaoWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Ecuador 69%, draw 22%, and Curaçao 9%. Ecuador is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group E fixture on Sunday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ecuador vs Curaçao World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Ecuador 69%, draw 22%, and Curaçao 9% — ecuador favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Ecuador vs Curaçao prediction score
Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Ecuador 2, Curaçao 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Ecuador vs Curaçao head to head
Group E fixture at Kansas City, kickoff Sun 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ECU #23 vs CUW #82), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Ecuador vs Curaçao line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured Ecuador — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.
Ranking gap is the story
Ecuador sit 59 places above Curaçao in the FIFA ranking (#23 vs #82) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Ecuador comes out at 69%, Curaçao at 9%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Moisés CaicedoChelsea
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