MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
England sits 70 places above Ghana in the FIFA ranking (#4 vs #74) — the model's dominant input. That lifts England to 95% and pushes Ghana down to 2%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats England as a strong favourite.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
England
#4
Ghana
#74
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
England
22
Ghana
3
HOST EDGE
England
—
Ghana
—
CONFEDERATION
England
UEFA
Ghana
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
England22 PL
- Dean HendersonCrystal Palace
- Jordan PickfordEverton
- James TraffordMan City
- Dan BurnNewcastle
- Marc GuéhiMan City
- Reece JamesChelsea
- Ezri KonsaAston Villa
- Tino LivramentoNewcastle
- + 14 more
Ghana3 PL
- Mohammed KudusSpurs
- Antoine SemenyoBournemouth
- Tariq LampteyBrighton
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