Who will win Spain vs Cape Verde?
Spain vs Cape VerdeWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Spain 61%, draw 30%, and Cape Verde 9%. Spain is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group H fixture on Monday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Spain vs Cape Verde World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Spain 61%, draw 30%, and Cape Verde 9% — spain favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Spain vs Cape Verde prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–0 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Spain 1, Cape Verde 0). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Spain vs Cape Verde head to head
Group H fixture at Atlanta, kickoff Mon 15 Jun, 16:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ESP #2 vs CPV #69), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Spain vs Cape Verde line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured Spain — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.
Ranking gap is the story
Spain sit 67 places above Cape Verde in the FIFA ranking (#2 vs #69) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Spain comes out at 61%, Cape Verde at 9%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- David RayaArsenal
- Pedro PorroSpurs
- Marc CucurellaChelsea
- RodriMan City
- Martín ZubimendiArsenal
- Mikel MerinoArsenal
- Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace
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Onside’s engine called 67 of 80 decisive World Cup matches — 84%, and 24 of 28 in the knockouts. It is now pointed at Fantasy Premier League, where it scores 0.86 mean absolute error across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions.
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