MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Germany sits 24 places above Ivory Coast in the FIFA ranking (#10 vs #34) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Germany to 68% and pushes Ivory Coast down to 14%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Germany as a strong favourite.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Germany
#10
Ivory Coast
#34
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Germany
5
Ivory Coast
4
HOST EDGE
Germany
—
Ivory Coast
—
CONFEDERATION
Germany
UEFA
Ivory Coast
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
Germany5 PL
- Malick ThiawNewcastle
- Pascal GroßBrighton
- Florian WirtzLiverpool
- Kai HavertzArsenal
- Nick WoltemadeNewcastle
Ivory Coast4 PL
- Ibrahim SangaréNott'm Forest
- Simon AdingraSunderland
- Amad DialloMan Utd
- Evann GuessandAston Villa
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