What is the win probability for Ghana vs Panama at the 2026 World Cup?

Onside's AI model gives Ghana 8%, draw 14%, and Panama 78% for the Group L fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Panama is the model favourite with strong confidence.

Who is favourite to win Ghana vs Panama?

Panama is the favourite at 78% model probability vs the underdog at 8%. The Onside Prediction Markets board compares our model to the live betting market.

When do Ghana and Panama play at the World Cup 2026?

Ghana vs Panama kicks off Wednesday, 17 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC in Toronto, matchday 1 of Group L.

MODEL ACCURACY · LIVE17 of 20 called· Favourite hit-rate 83%→

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Who will win Ghana vs Panama?

Onside's model gives Panama a 78% win probability (14% draw, Ghana 8%). We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.

MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP L · MD1

Ghana vs PanamaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Toronto

Onside's AI model gives Ghana 8%, draw 14%, and Panama 78%. Panama is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group L fixture on Wednesday.

GHANA WIN

DRAW

14%

PANAMA WIN

78%

Ghana8%

Draw 14%

78%Panama

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FAV PAN · STRONG CONFIDENCE

MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Panama sit 41 places above Ghana in the FIFA ranking (#33 vs #74) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Panama comes out at 78%, Ghana at 8%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

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MATCH CONTEXT