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Who will win Jordan vs Argentina?

Onside's model gives Argentina a 84% win probability (12% draw, Jordan 4%). The model's projected scoreline is Jordan 13 Argentina. We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
Live model · updated moments ago · re-runs at kickoff67/82 calls right (82%) — see the record →
Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-19
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP J · MD3

Jordan vs ArgentinaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Arlington

Onside's AI model gives Jordan 4%, draw 12%, and Argentina 84%. Argentina is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group J fixture on Sunday.

JORDAN WIN
4%
DRAW
12%
ARGENTINA WIN
84%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
0.653.09
★ MODE
03
11.7%
02
11.4%
04
9.1%
13
7.6%
12
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
72%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
46%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Jordan vs Argentina World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Jordan 4%, draw 12%, and Argentina 84% — argentina favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Jordan vs Argentina prediction score

Expected scoreline: 13 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Jordan 1, Argentina 3). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Jordan vs Argentina head to head

Group J fixture at Arlington, kickoff Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (JOR #63 vs ARG #3), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Jordan vs Argentina line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
JOR / D / ARG
FINAL SCORE
13

Model picked Argentina — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV ARG · STRONG CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

Argentina sit 60 places above Jordan in the FIFA ranking (#3 vs #63) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Argentina comes out at 84%, Jordan at 4%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Jordan
#63
Argentina
#3
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Jordan
0
Argentina
5
HOME SOIL
Jordan
Argentina
REGION
Jordan
AFC
Argentina
CONMEBOL
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Jordan0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
Argentina5 PL
  • Emiliano MartínezAston Villa
  • Lisandro MartínezMan Utd
  • Cristian RomeroSpurs
  • Enzo FernándezChelsea
  • Alexis Mac AllisterLiverpool
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