MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Mexico sits 45 places above South Africa in the FIFA ranking (#15 vs #60) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Mexico to 88% and pushes South Africa down to 4%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Mexico as a strong favourite.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Mexico
#15
South Africa
#60
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Mexico
2
South Africa
0
HOST EDGE
Mexico
YES
South Africa
—
CONFEDERATION
Mexico
CONCACAF
South Africa
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
Mexico2 PL
- Edson ÁlvarezWest Ham
- Raúl JiménezFulham
South Africa0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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