Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden?
Netherlands vs SwedenWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Netherlands 68%, draw 16%, and Sweden 16%. Netherlands is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Saturday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Netherlands vs Sweden World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Netherlands 68%, draw 16%, and Sweden 16% — netherlands favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Netherlands vs Sweden prediction score
Expected scoreline: 3–2 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Netherlands 3, Sweden 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Netherlands vs Sweden head to head
Group F fixture at Houston, kickoff Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (NED #7 vs SWE #38), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Netherlands vs Sweden line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model picked Netherlands — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.
Ranking gap is the story
Netherlands sit 31 places above Sweden in the FIFA ranking (#7 vs #38) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Netherlands comes out at 68%, Sweden at 16%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Mark FlekkenBrentford
- Robin RoefsSunderland
- Bart VerbruggenBrighton
- Nathan AkéMan City
- Virgil van DijkLiverpool
- Jorrel HatoChelsea
- Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton
- Micky van de VenSpurs
- + 9 more
- Alexander IsakLiverpool
- Viktor GyökeresArsenal
- Anthony ElangaNewcastle
- Lucas BergvallSpurs
- Yasin AyariBrighton
- Victor LindelöfAston Villa
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Same model. Bigger season.
Onside’s engine called 67 of 80 decisive World Cup matches — 84%, and 24 of 28 in the knockouts. It is now pointed at Fantasy Premier League, where it scores 0.86 mean absolute error across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions.
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