Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?
Tunisia vs JapanWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Tunisia 5%, draw 11%, and Japan 84%. Japan is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Sunday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Tunisia vs Japan World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Tunisia 5%, draw 11%, and Japan 84% — japan favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Tunisia vs Japan prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–4 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Tunisia 1, Japan 4). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Tunisia vs Japan head to head
Group F fixture at Guadalupe, kickoff Sun 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUN #44 vs JPN #18), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Tunisia vs Japan line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model picked Japan — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.
Ranking gap is the story
Japan sit 26 places above Tunisia in the FIFA ranking (#18 vs #44) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Japan comes out at 84%, Tunisia at 5%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Hannibal MejbriBurnley
- Wataru EndoLiverpool
- Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
- Ao TanakaLeeds
- Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
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