MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP F · MD3

Tunisia vs Netherlands

Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Kansas City
TUNISIA WIN
7%
DRAW
12%
NETHERLANDS WIN
81%
Tunisia7%
Draw 12%
81%Netherlands
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FAV NED · STRONG CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

FIFA rank gap drives the model

Netherlands sits 37 places above Tunisia in the FIFA ranking (#7 vs #44) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Netherlands to 81% and pushes Tunisia down to 7%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Netherlands as a strong favourite.

WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS

The four signals, side-by-side

FIFA RANKING
Tunisia
#44
Netherlands
#7
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Tunisia
1
Netherlands
15
HOST EDGE
Tunisia
Netherlands
CONFEDERATION
Tunisia
CAF
Netherlands
UEFA
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Tunisia1 PL
  • Hannibal MejbriBurnley
Netherlands15 PL
  • Robin RoefsSunderland
  • Bart VerbruggenBrighton
  • Nathan AkéMan City
  • Virgil van DijkLiverpool
  • Jorrel HatoChelsea
  • Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton
  • Micky van de VenSpurs
  • Jurriën TimberArsenal
  • + 7 more
Tunisia full team page →Netherlands full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
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