MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Uruguay sits 52 places above Cape Verde in the FIFA ranking (#17 vs #69) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Uruguay to 88% and pushes Cape Verde down to 4%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Uruguay as a strong favourite.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Uruguay
#17
Cape Verde
#69
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Uruguay
2
Cape Verde
0
HOST EDGE
Uruguay
—
Cape Verde
—
CONFEDERATION
Uruguay
CONMEBOL
Cape Verde
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD
The PL names in each squad
Uruguay2 PL
- Manuel UgarteMan Utd
- Rodrigo BentancurSpurs
Cape Verde0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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