Who will win United States vs Paraguay?
United States vs ParaguayWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives United States 68%, draw 19%, and Paraguay 13%. United States is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Saturday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
United States vs Paraguay World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives United States 68%, draw 19%, and Paraguay 13% — united states favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
United States vs Paraguay prediction score
Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (United States 2, Paraguay 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
United States vs Paraguay head to head
Group D fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Sat 13 Jun, 01:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (USA #16 vs PAR #40), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
United States vs Paraguay line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model picked United States — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.
Ranking gap is the story
United States sit 24 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#16 vs #40) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. United States comes out at 68%, Paraguay at 13%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a strong call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
- Antonee RobinsonFulham
- Tyler AdamsBournemouth
- Brenden AaronsonLeeds
- Diego GómezBrighton
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