QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Manchester United in Gameweek 16: Arsenal 61%, draw 23%, Manchester United 16%. The score pick is Arsenal 21 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 20. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, MUN goals across

ARSMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
ARS 05.7%3.1%2.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%
ARS 18.8%10.2%4.2%1.3%0.3%0.1%
ARS 210.7%9.9%4.6%1.4%0.3%0.1%
ARS 37.7%7.1%3.3%1.0%0.2%0.0%
ARS 44.2%3.8%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 51.8%1.7%0.8%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.3%.

Sat 19 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW16 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 61% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 16, with 23% on the draw and 16% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 21 Manchester United, from expected goals of 2.16 to 0.92. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
61%
Draw
23%
Manchester United
16%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 20
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.160.92
★ MODE
20
10.7%
11
10.2%
21
9.9%
10
8.8%
30
7.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.160.92.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW16 predictions
Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction — GW16 Score & Win Probability