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Who will win Everton vs Brentford?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Brentford in Gameweek 22: Everton 39%, draw 28%, Brentford 33%. The score pick is Everton 21 Brentford, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, BRE goals across

EVEBRE 0BRE 1BRE 2BRE 3BRE 4BRE 5
EVE 08.2%7.1%5.5%2.3%0.7%0.2%
EVE 18.1%13.7%7.8%3.3%1.1%0.3%
EVE 26.8%8.7%5.5%2.4%0.8%0.2%
EVE 33.2%4.1%2.6%1.1%0.4%0.1%
EVE 41.2%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%
EVE 50.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Sat 23 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW22 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Brentford

Onside's model gives Everton a 39% chance of beating Brentford in Gameweek 22, with 28% on the draw and 33% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 21 Brentford, from expected goals of 1.42 to 1.28. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
39%
Draw
28%
Brentford
33%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.421.28
★ MODE
11
13.7%
21
8.7%
00
8.2%
10
8.1%
12
7.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
51%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brentford
Attack ranks #8, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.421.28.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW22 predictions
Everton vs Brentford Prediction — GW22 Score & Win Probability