QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?

Ipswich Town 21 Sunderland. Before kick-off the model gave Ipswich Town 35%, the draw 29% and Sunderland 36%, with a score pick of 21. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

IPS goals down, SUN goals across

IPSSUN 0SUN 1SUN 2SUN 3SUN 4SUN 5
IPS 08.3%7.2%5.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%
IPS 18.1%13.7%7.8%3.3%1.1%0.3%
IPS 26.8%8.6%5.5%2.4%0.8%0.2%
IPS 33.2%4.1%2.6%1.1%0.4%0.1%
IPS 41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%
IPS 50.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Full time · GW1 · model pl-market-v2

Ipswich Town v Sunderland21

Onside's model gives Ipswich Town a 35% chance of beating Sunderland in Gameweek 1, with 29% on the draw and 36% on an away win. The score prediction is Ipswich Town 21 Sunderland, from expected goals of 1.41 to 1.28. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Ipswich Town
35%
Draw
29%
Sunderland
36%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
11
Final score
21
Graded
0 · missed

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.411.28
★ MODE
11
13.7%
21
8.6%
00
8.3%
10
8.1%
12
7.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
50%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Ipswich Town
Attack ranks #16 and defence #20 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Sunderland
Attack ranks #18, defence #14. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.411.28.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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