QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Brentford 30 Tottenham Hotspur. Before kick-off the model gave Brentford 43%, the draw 25% and Tottenham Hotspur 32%, with a score pick of 21. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BRE goals down, TOT goals across

BRETOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
BRE 05.6%4.6%3.9%1.7%0.6%0.2%
BRE 16.6%11.8%7.0%3.1%1.0%0.3%
BRE 27.0%9.4%6.3%2.8%0.9%0.2%
BRE 34.2%5.6%3.7%1.7%0.6%0.1%
BRE 41.9%2.5%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.1%
BRE 50.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Full time · GW1 · model pl-market-v2

Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur30

Onside's model gives Brentford a 43% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 1, with 25% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Brentford 21 Tottenham Hotspur, from expected goals of 1.79 to 1.34. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brentford
43%
Draw
25%
Tottenham Hotspur
32%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
10
Final score
30
Graded
+2 · right result

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.791.34
★ MODE
11
11.8%
21
9.4%
20
7.0%
12
7.0%
10
6.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #8 and defence #8 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #9, defence #12. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.791.34.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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