Who will win Brighton vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BHA goals down, AVL goals across
| BHA ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| BHA 1 | 7.2% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| BHA 2 | 8.0% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| BHA 3 | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| BHA 4 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| BHA 5 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.5%.
Brighton v Aston Villa4–0
Onside's model gives Brighton a 46% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 1, with 25% on the draw and 29% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 2–1 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 1.92 to 1.21. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).