QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Coventry City?

Arsenal 30 Coventry City. Before kick-off the model gave Arsenal 77%, the draw 15% and Coventry City 8%, with a score pick of 20. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, COV goals across

ARSCOV 0COV 1COV 2COV 3COV 4COV 5
ARS 03.7%1.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
ARS 17.9%6.2%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
ARS 212.3%7.9%2.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 311.8%7.6%2.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 48.4%5.4%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
ARS 54.8%3.1%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 6.8%.

Full time · GW1 · model pl-market-v2

Arsenal v Coventry City30

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 77% chance of beating Coventry City in Gameweek 1, with 15% on the draw and 8% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 20 Coventry City, from expected goals of 2.87 to 0.64. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
77%
Draw
15%
Coventry City
8%
Model pick: 20 · most probable 20
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
10
Final score
30
Graded
+2 · right result

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.870.64
★ MODE
20
12.3%
30
11.8%
40
8.4%
21
7.9%
10
7.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
68%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
45%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Coventry City
Attack ranks #20, defence #19. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.870.64.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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