QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester United vs Chelsea?

The Onside model makes Manchester United the more likely winner of Manchester United vs Chelsea in Gameweek 24: Manchester United 38%, draw 26%, Chelsea 36%. The score pick is Manchester United 21 Chelsea, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MUN goals down, CHE goals across

MUNCHE 0CHE 1CHE 2CHE 3CHE 4CHE 5
MUN 05.1%4.8%4.8%2.5%1.0%0.3%
MUN 15.2%11.4%8.0%4.2%1.7%0.5%
MUN 25.4%8.6%6.8%3.6%1.4%0.4%
MUN 33.1%4.8%3.8%2.0%0.8%0.2%
MUN 41.3%2.0%1.6%0.8%0.3%0.1%
MUN 50.4%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Sat 6 Feb · 15:00 UK · GW24 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester United v Chelsea

Onside's model gives Manchester United a 38% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 24, with 26% on the draw and 36% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester United 21 Chelsea, from expected goals of 1.68 to 1.58. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester United
38%
Draw
26%
Chelsea
36%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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AI calls
2–1
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.681.58
★ MODE
11
11.4%
21
8.6%
12
8.0%
22
6.8%
20
5.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
63%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
66%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.681.58.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW24 predictions
Manchester United vs Chelsea Prediction — GW24 Score & Win Probability