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Who will win Arsenal vs Liverpool?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Liverpool in Gameweek 24: Arsenal 53%, draw 25%, Liverpool 22%. The score pick is Arsenal 21 Liverpool, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, LIV goals across

ARSLIV 0LIV 1LIV 2LIV 3LIV 4LIV 5
ARS 05.5%3.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%0.1%
ARS 17.6%10.9%5.4%2.0%0.6%0.1%
ARS 28.9%9.9%5.5%2.0%0.6%0.1%
ARS 36.0%6.7%3.7%1.4%0.4%0.1%
ARS 43.1%3.4%1.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%
ARS 51.2%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.9%.

Sat 6 Feb · 15:00 UK · GW24 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Liverpool

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 53% chance of beating Liverpool in Gameweek 24, with 25% on the draw and 22% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 21 Liverpool, from expected goals of 2.03 to 1.11. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
53%
Draw
25%
Liverpool
22%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.031.11
★ MODE
11
10.9%
21
9.9%
20
8.9%
10
7.6%
31
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
61%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Liverpool
Attack ranks #3, defence #3. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.031.11.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW24 predictions
Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction — GW24 Score & Win Probability