QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester United vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Manchester United the more likely winner of Manchester United vs Leeds United in Gameweek 36: Manchester United 41%, draw 28%, Leeds United 31%. The score pick is Manchester United 21 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MUN goals down, LEE goals across

MUNLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
MUN 06.7%4.5%3.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
MUN 18.6%12.0%5.8%2.1%0.6%0.1%
MUN 29.1%9.9%5.3%1.9%0.5%0.1%
MUN 35.6%6.0%3.3%1.2%0.3%0.1%
MUN 42.6%2.8%1.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
MUN 50.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.

Sat 15 May · 15:00 UK · GW36 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester United v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Manchester United a 41% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 36, with 28% on the draw and 31% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester United 21 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.84 to 1.08. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester United
41%
Draw
28%
Leeds United
31%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.841.08
★ MODE
11
12.0%
21
9.9%
20
9.1%
10
8.6%
00
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.841.08.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW36 predictions
Manchester United vs Leeds United Prediction — GW36 Score