Sat 17 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW32 · model pl-dc-v2 · pre-season
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
33%
Draw
27%
Liverpool
40%
Model pick: 1–2 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →Your call
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
EXPECTED GOALS
1.37 — 1.53
★ MODE
1–1
12.9%
1–2
8.8%
2–1
7.9%
0–1
7.0%
0–0
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
60%
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Why the model leans this way
Nottingham Forest
Attack ranks #14 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.Liverpool
Attack ranks #2, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.37–1.53.Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2 · pre-season). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Think you can beat this call?
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).