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Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Sunderland the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Leeds United in Gameweek 8: Sunderland 38%, draw 30%, Leeds United 32%. The score pick is Sunderland 11 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, LEE goals across

SUNLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
SUN 09.7%8.4%6.1%2.5%0.8%0.2%
SUN 18.9%14.3%7.8%3.2%1.0%0.2%
SUN 26.7%8.2%5.0%2.1%0.6%0.2%
SUN 32.9%3.5%2.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%
SUN 40.9%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
SUN 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.4%.

Sun 25 Oct · 16:30 UK · GW8 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 38% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 8, with 30% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 11 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.29 to 1.22. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
38%
Draw
30%
Leeds United
32%
Model pick: 11 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.291.22
★ MODE
11
14.3%
00
9.7%
10
8.9%
01
8.4%
21
8.2%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
46%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #18 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.291.22.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW8 predictions
Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction — GW8 Score & Win Probability