Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, MUN goals across
| CHE ↓ | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| CHE 1 | 6.0% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| CHE 2 | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| CHE 3 | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CHE 4 | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.8%.
Chelsea v Manchester United
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 52% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 9, with 24% on the draw and 24% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.96 to 1.36. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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