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Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Leeds United in Gameweek 9: Bournemouth 44%, draw 27%, Leeds United 29%. The score pick is Bournemouth 21 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, LEE goals across

BOULEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
BOU 07.3%5.6%4.1%1.6%0.5%0.1%
BOU 18.4%12.9%6.8%2.7%0.8%0.2%
BOU 28.0%9.5%5.6%2.2%0.6%0.2%
BOU 34.4%5.2%3.1%1.2%0.4%0.1%
BOU 41.8%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
BOU 50.6%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 UK · GW9 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Bournemouth a 44% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 9, with 27% on the draw and 29% on an away win. The score prediction is Bournemouth 21 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.65 to 1.18. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Bournemouth
44%
Draw
27%
Leeds United
29%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.651.18
★ MODE
11
12.9%
21
9.5%
10
8.4%
20
8.0%
00
7.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
54%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #11 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.651.18.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW9 predictions
Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction — GW9 Score & Win Probability