Who will win Manchester City vs Brighton?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, BHA goals across
| MCI ↓ | BHA 0 | BHA 1 | BHA 2 | BHA 3 | BHA 4 | BHA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MCI 1 | 7.5% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| MCI 2 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| MCI 3 | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| MCI 4 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 5 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.7%.
Manchester City v Brighton
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 50% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 9, with 25% on the draw and 25% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 2–1 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.98 to 1.15. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).