QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Sunderland the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Manchester United in Gameweek 28: Sunderland 40%, draw 28%, Manchester United 32%. The score pick is Sunderland 12 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, MUN goals across

SUNMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
SUN 07.8%8.5%7.7%4.0%1.5%0.5%
SUN 16.2%13.3%9.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%
SUN 24.6%7.1%5.5%2.9%1.1%0.3%
SUN 31.8%2.8%2.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
SUN 40.5%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
SUN 50.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.

Wed 3 Mar · 20:00 UK · GW28 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 40% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 28, with 28% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 12 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.20 to 1.55. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
40%
Draw
28%
Manchester United
32%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.201.55
★ MODE
11
13.3%
12
9.2%
01
8.5%
00
7.8%
02
7.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #18 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.201.55.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW28 predictions
Sunderland vs Manchester United Prediction — GW28 Score