Who will win Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, CRY goals across
| ARS ↓ | CRY 0 | CRY 1 | CRY 2 | CRY 3 | CRY 4 | CRY 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 5.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ARS 1 | 9.8% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 2 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 3 | 10.9% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.9%.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Onside's model gives Arsenal a 62% chance of beating Crystal Palace in Gameweek 28, with 23% on the draw and 15% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 2–0 Crystal Palace, from expected goals of 2.47 to 0.67. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).