World Cup 2026 quarter-final predictions

Onside's model favours France, Spain, Argentina, England across the four quarter-finals. In detail: France v Morocco leans France (52% to advance in 90 minutes); Spain v Belgium leans Spain (50% to advance in 90 minutes); Argentina v Switzerland leans Argentina (55% to advance in 90 minutes); England v Norway leans England (79% to advance in 90 minutes). Win probabilities re-run hourly, and each tie is graded against the actual result at onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/model-record.

The four quarter-finals are played 9 to 11 July 2026: France v Morocco, Spain v Belgium, Argentina v Switzerland and England v Norway. The winners go through to the semi-finals on 14 and 15 July, and the final is on 19 July at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.

Each tie is run through an ensemble machine-learning model trained on twelve past World Cups, which outputs win/draw/loss probabilities and a most likely scoreline. Those feed a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining bracket for the champion odds. Methodology is at onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology; the model weights are private, the graded record is public.

Each tie has its own page with win probabilities, likely scorelines and projected line-ups at onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/knockout/{home}-vs-{away} (lowercase three-letter FIFA codes, e.g. /knockout/eng-vs-nor). The live champion-probability grid for the whole field is at onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/winner.