Mon 31 Aug · 20:00 UK · GW2 · model pl-dc-v2 · pre-season
Aston Villa v Arsenal
Aston Villa
31%
Draw
28%
Arsenal
41%
Model pick: 1–2 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →Your call
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
EXPECTED GOALS
1.23 — 1.48
★ MODE
1–1
13.6%
1–2
9.0%
0–1
8.4%
0–0
8.1%
2–1
7.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
51%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Why the model leans this way
Aston Villa
Attack ranks #8 and defence #9 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.Arsenal
Attack ranks #3, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.23–1.48.Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2 · pre-season). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Think you can beat this call?
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).