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Who will win Chelsea vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Chelsea the more likely winner of Chelsea vs Brighton in Gameweek 2: Chelsea 43%, draw 25%, Brighton 32%. The score pick is Chelsea 21 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CHE goals down, BHA goals across

CHEBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
CHE 05.1%4.1%3.6%1.6%0.6%0.2%
CHE 16.2%11.2%6.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%
CHE 26.9%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%0.3%
CHE 34.3%5.9%4.0%1.8%0.6%0.2%
CHE 42.0%2.8%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%
CHE 50.8%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.5%.

Sun 30 Aug · 14:00 UK · GW2 · model pl-dc-v2

Chelsea v Brighton

Onside's model gives Chelsea a 43% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 2, with 25% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 21 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.88 to 1.36. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Chelsea
43%
Draw
25%
Brighton
32%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sun 13:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.881.36
★ MODE
11
11.2%
21
9.4%
20
6.9%
12
6.8%
22
6.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
63%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
64%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #5, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.881.36.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW2 predictions
Chelsea vs Brighton Prediction — GW2 Score & Win Probability