QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester City?

The Onside model makes Chelsea the more likely winner of Chelsea vs Manchester City in Gameweek 33: Chelsea 37%, draw 26%, Manchester City 37%. The score pick is Chelsea 12 Manchester City, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CHE goals down, MCI goals across

CHEMCI 0MCI 1MCI 2MCI 3MCI 4MCI 5
CHE 05.0%5.0%5.1%2.8%1.1%0.4%
CHE 15.0%11.4%8.3%4.5%1.9%0.6%
CHE 25.1%8.3%6.8%3.7%1.5%0.5%
CHE 32.8%4.5%3.7%2.0%0.8%0.3%
CHE 41.1%1.8%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
CHE 50.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Sat 24 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW33 · model pl-dc-v2

Chelsea v Manchester City

Onside's model gives Chelsea a 37% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 33, with 26% on the draw and 37% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 12 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.63 to 1.64. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Chelsea
37%
Draw
26%
Manchester City
37%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.631.64
★ MODE
11
11.4%
12
8.3%
21
8.3%
22
6.8%
02
5.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
63%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
66%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2, defence #2. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.631.64.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW33 predictions
Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction — GW33 Score & Win Probability