QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Leeds United vs Liverpool?

The Onside model makes Liverpool the more likely winner of Leeds United vs Liverpool in Gameweek 33: Leeds United 36%, draw 27%, Liverpool 37%. The score pick is Leeds United 12 Liverpool, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LEE goals down, LIV goals across

LEELIV 0LIV 1LIV 2LIV 3LIV 4LIV 5
LEE 06.0%7.2%7.5%4.5%2.0%0.7%
LEE 14.7%12.0%9.5%5.7%2.5%0.9%
LEE 23.8%6.8%6.0%3.6%1.6%0.6%
LEE 31.6%2.9%2.6%1.5%0.7%0.2%
LEE 40.5%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
LEE 50.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.

Sat 24 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW33 · model pl-dc-v2

Leeds United v Liverpool

Onside's model gives Leeds United a 36% chance of beating Liverpool in Gameweek 33, with 27% on the draw and 37% on an away win. The score prediction is Leeds United 12 Liverpool, from expected goals of 1.27 to 1.78. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Leeds United
36%
Draw
27%
Liverpool
37%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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AI calls
1–2
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locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.271.78
★ MODE
11
12.0%
12
9.5%
02
7.5%
01
7.2%
21
6.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
59%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
61%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14 and defence #10 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Liverpool
Attack ranks #3, defence #3. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.271.78.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW33 predictions
Leeds United vs Liverpool Prediction — GW33 Score & Win Probability