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Who will win Everton vs Arsenal?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Everton vs Arsenal in Gameweek 37: Everton 28%, draw 29%, Arsenal 43%. The score pick is Everton 01 Arsenal, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, ARS goals across

EVEARS 0ARS 1ARS 2ARS 3ARS 4ARS 5
EVE 08.5%10.9%10.6%6.0%2.6%0.9%
EVE 15.2%12.7%9.7%5.6%2.4%0.8%
EVE 23.0%5.2%4.5%2.6%1.1%0.4%
EVE 30.9%1.6%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
EVE 40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
EVE 50.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.9%.

Sun 23 May · 15:00 UK · GW37 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Arsenal

Onside's model gives Everton a 28% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 37, with 29% on the draw and 43% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 01 Arsenal, from expected goals of 0.92 to 1.72. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
28%
Draw
29%
Arsenal
43%
Model pick: 01 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
0.921.72
★ MODE
11
12.7%
01
10.9%
02
10.6%
12
9.7%
00
8.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
49%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 0.921.72.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW37 predictions
Everton vs Arsenal Prediction — GW37 Score & Win Probability