Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LIV goals down, MUN goals across
| LIV ↓ | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| LIV 1 | 6.1% | 10.4% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| LIV 2 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| LIV 3 | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| LIV 4 | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| LIV 5 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.1%.
Liverpool v Manchester United
Onside's model gives Liverpool a 55% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 11, with 23% on the draw and 22% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 2–1 Manchester United, from expected goals of 2.06 to 1.30. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).