Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
NEW goals down, ARS goals across
| NEW ↓ | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW 0 | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| NEW 1 | 4.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| NEW 2 | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| NEW 3 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| NEW 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| NEW 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.
Newcastle United v Arsenal
Onside's model gives Newcastle United a 29% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 11, with 27% on the draw and 44% on an away win. The score prediction is Newcastle United 1–2 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.13 to 1.87. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).