Sat 21 Nov · 15:00 UK · GW11 · model pl-market-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 11, from expected goals of 1.89 to 1.02. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
TOT win
58%
Draw
23%
IPS win
19%
Score pick
2–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town?

The Onside model makes Tottenham Hotspur the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town in Gameweek 11: Tottenham Hotspur 58%, draw 23%, Ipswich Town 19%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 2–1 Ipswich Town, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, IPS goals across

TOT ↓IPS 0IPS 1IPS 2IPS 3IPS 4IPS 5
TOT 06.8%4.3%2.8%1.0%0.2%0.0%
TOT 19.1%11.8%5.3%1.8%0.5%0.1%
TOT 29.8%9.9%5.0%1.7%0.4%0.1%
TOT 36.1%6.2%3.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
TOT 42.9%2.9%1.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
TOT 51.1%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Your call
AI calls
2–1
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.89 — 1.02
★ MODE
1–1
11.8%
2–1
9.9%
2–0
9.8%
1–0
9.1%
0–0
6.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
55%

Model updated from 100 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #11 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Ipswich Town
Attack ranks #12, defence #20. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.89–1.02.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW11 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur
4-5-1
GK
Kinsky
DEF
Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson, Pedro Porro
MID
Tonali, Gray, Kudus, Fernandes, Tel
FWD
Marmoush
  • Richarlison — not included in squad.
  • Sávio — Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Bergvall — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Mudryk — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Xavi — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Tel 75% — Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH
FULL TOT LINE-UP →
Ipswich Town
4-5-1
GK
Walton
DEF
O'Shea, Davis, Diop, Ouattara
MID
Enciso, Palacios, Florentino, Philogene, Maeda
FWD
Emersonn

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL IPS LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW24Ipswich Town vs Spurs prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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