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Sat 21 Nov · 15:00 UK · GW11 · model pl-dc-v2

Coventry City v Crystal Palace

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 11, from expected goals of 1.55 to 1.25. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
COV win
46%
Draw
27%
CRY win
27%
Score pick
2–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?

The Onside model makes Coventry City the more likely winner of Coventry City vs Crystal Palace in Gameweek 11: Coventry City 46%, draw 27%, Crystal Palace 27%. The score pick is Coventry City 2–1 Crystal Palace, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

COV goals down, CRY goals across

COV ↓CRY 0CRY 1CRY 2CRY 3CRY 4CRY 5
COV 07.5%6.2%4.7%2.0%0.6%0.2%
COV 18.1%13.2%7.3%3.0%0.9%0.2%
COV 27.3%9.1%5.7%2.4%0.7%0.2%
COV 33.8%4.7%2.9%1.2%0.4%0.1%
COV 41.5%1.8%1.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%
COV 50.5%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.

Your call
AI calls
2–1
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.55 — 1.25
★ MODE
1–1
13.2%
2–1
9.1%
1–0
8.1%
0–0
7.5%
2–0
7.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Coventry City
Attack ranks #17 and defence #18 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #14, defence #19. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.55–1.25.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW11 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Coventry City
4-4-2
GK
Rushworth
DEF
Dasilva, Pinnock, van Ewijk, Mfuni
MID
Rudoni, Yirenkyi, Grimes, Sakamoto
FWD
Thomas-Asante, Cherif
  • Dovin — not included in squad.
  • Amenda — Calf injury - Unknown return date
  • Woolfenden — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Wright — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Eccles — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Thomas 50% — Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
  • Onyeka 50% — Groin injury - 50% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL COV LINE-UP →
Crystal Palace
5-4-1
GK
Benitez
DEF
Mitchell, Richards, Canvot, Khalaili, Disasi
MID
Wharton, Kamada, Yeremy, McNeil
FWD
Strand Larsen
  • Mateta — Suspended until 2 Dec
  • Sarr — Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Tomiyasu — Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Chadi Riad — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Uche — has returned to Getafe CF
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL CRY LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW24Crystal Palace vs Coventry City prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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