Chelsea v Leeds United
Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, LEE goals across
| CHE ↓ | LEE 0 | LEE 1 | LEE 2 | LEE 3 | LEE 4 | LEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 1 | 9.3% | 12.2% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| CHE 2 | 9.6% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 3 | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 4 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| CHE 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Predicted line-ups & team news
Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.
- GK
- Penders
- DEF
- Colwill, Acheampong, Fofana, Palestra
- MID
- Rogers, Palmer, Neto, Caicedo, Henderson, Lavia
- João Pedro — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Lacroix — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
- James — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Martinez — Head injury - Unknown return date
- Hato — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
- Henderson 75% — Illness - 75% chance of playing
- GK
- Trafford
- DEF
- Bogle, Muharemović, Justin, Gudmundsson, Elvedi
- MID
- Ampadu, Tanaka, Wilson, James
- FWD
- Calvert-Lewin
- Mateo Joseph — Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Calvert-Lewin 75% — Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
- Stach 50% — Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
- Okafor 50% — Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.
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