QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Leeds United the more likely winner of Chelsea vs Leeds United in Gameweek 11: Chelsea 36%, draw 27%, Leeds United 37%. The score pick is Chelsea 21 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CHE goals down, LEE goals across

CHELEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
CHE 06.2%4.9%3.9%1.6%0.5%0.1%
CHE 17.3%12.1%6.8%2.9%0.9%0.2%
CHE 27.6%9.5%6.0%2.5%0.8%0.2%
CHE 34.4%5.6%3.5%1.5%0.5%0.1%
CHE 42.0%2.5%1.5%0.6%0.2%0.1%
CHE 50.7%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.

Sat 21 Nov · 15:00 UK · GW11 · model pl-dc-v2

Chelsea v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Chelsea a 36% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 11, with 27% on the draw and 37% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 21 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.76 to 1.26. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Chelsea
36%
Draw
27%
Leeds United
37%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Your call
AI calls
2–1
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.761.26
★ MODE
11
12.1%
21
9.5%
20
7.6%
10
7.3%
12
6.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
61%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4 and defence #15 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #11, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.761.26.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW22Leeds vs Chelsea predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction — GW11 Score & Win Probability